" The effects of the Covid-19 price drop on darknet markets is especially interesting. Historically, darknet markets’ revenue has had a weak inverse correlation with Bitcoin’s price. As we’ve noted in the past, darknet market activity is much less affected by the ebbs and flows of the market than other types of services, suggesting typical customers are willing to spend on drugs (and, to a lesser degree, other illicit stock such as stolen credit card data, firearms, and more) no matter how much their Bitcoin is worth. However, the correlational relationship has now reversed, and darknet market revenue has fallen much more than we’d expect following Bitcoin’s recent major price drop.
Perhaps darknet market customers aren’t buying as many drugs given the public health crisis. It’s also possible that vendors slowed down sales during the price drop, out of fear that the Bitcoin they accept one day could be worthless the next. But it’s also likely that Covid-19 itself is making it harder to sell drugs at the moment. Recent reports point out that Mexican drug cartels are having a harder time sourcing fentanyl, as China’s Hubei province — a hub of the global fentanyl trade — has been hit hard as the epicenter of the outbreak. Such disruptions to global supply chains could be hampering darknet market vendors’ ability to do business. "